The researchers of IMS are taking part in the study on coronavirus prevalence

On April 23 the researchers of the University of Tartu began with a cross-sectional study on the prevalence of Covid-19 in Estonia. The team of researchers includes experts from the Institute of Mathematics and Statistics.

During the study, which will last at most three months, at least 16 000 random people of Estonia will be invited to fill in a questionnaire and to be tested for Covid-19. The project consists of eight waves of one week to offer the government evidentiary results for gradually relieving current restraints. More information on the study can be found here.

The main aim of the researchers of the Institute of Mathematics and Statistics is to estimate the prevalence and the number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 based on weekly data. The experts also analyse how the course of the illness changes every week.

In addition to the previous, the study will also reveal how the main background characteristics and risk factors of the infected (for example concomitant illnesses and socioeconomic status) affect the prevalence. The researchers will also examine how these aspects correlate with the course of the illness.

“It is too early to speak about the results of the study, but the random statistical sample offers us a good perception of how the virus has spread in Estonia,” says Associate Professor Meelis Käärik who is one of the team members. “Studying how the dynamic of the prevalence changes in time enables the government to decide whether to relieve current restraints. During the study we also hope to spot the asymptomatic carriers who wouldn’t suspect being infected because they show no symptoms. For example, the news about Sillamäe Maxima’s worker diagnosed with Covid-19 was a finding of our study.”

The study is conducted by Professor Ruth Kalda, the Head of the Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health. The Institute of Mathematics and Statistics is represented by Professor Krista Fischer, Professor Emeritus Ene-Margit Tiit, Associate Professor Meelis Käärik, Associate Professor Raul Kangro, Personal Assistant Ene Käärik and Master’s student Tuuli Jürgenson. In addition to the Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, the researchers are collaborating with specialists from the Institute of Computer Science, the Institute of Genomics and Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies. The project is funded by the Government of the Republic of Estonia.